Where are the greatest job losses from COVID-19?
Researchers at Common Good Labs examined the patterns of recent job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic..
Between April and May of 2020, the U.S. unemployment rate declined from 14.7 percent to 13.3 percent — a positive sign for the economy. However, analyses suggest that there are several major challenges related to job losses from COVID-19 in the United States.
Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, and other sources, Common Good Labs analyzed recent layoffs and long-standing employment gaps. A summary of the key findings is listed below.
What did we learn?
The loss of employment has affected some communities much more than others.
Many parts of the country were struggling with job losses even before the pandemic. This can be seen by looking at the employment-to-population ratio, which measures the percentage of working age civilians who have a job. This offers insight on recent job losses as well as when people are not working due to issues not captured in the unemployment rate, such as disability or the lack of available jobs in their region.
In February, less than half of working age civilians were employed in around 20 percent of U.S. counties. By May, the number of counties where less than half of working age civilians were employed increased to more than 40 percent.
The number of permanently unemployed workers went up significantly for the first time during the pandemic, increasing by 14 percent in May.
Between April and May of 2020, the U.S. unemployment rate declined from 14.7 percent to 13.3 percent, as more than 2.7 million workers on temporary layoffs returned to their jobs. However, this news masked another, less positive, change.
The quantity of people not working due to permanent layoffs and other “non-temporary” reasons remained around 5.0 million from February to April, but grew to 5.7 million last month. The growth of this number in the coming months will provide one of the best measures of the 2020 recession’s true size. It is likely to increase as some temporary job losses become permanent when businesses shrink or fail, and as new graduates enter the workforce.
Employment remains lowest among Black workers and people who lack a high school diploma.
Counties with above average numbers of Black residents had less local employment before the pandemic and remain significantly lower than other communities. Counties with more adults who did not complete high school also had lower employment rates before the pandemic and continue to have fewer jobs than other regions of the country.
National data on employment by race or ethnicity, educational attainment, and gender show a similar trend. Recent employment losses have left Black workers, women, and those with less educational attainment with lower levels of employment compared to other groups.
Case Study: Miami, FL
More information on these findings can be found in the full report. If you are interested in similar analyses for other cities, please contact the authors.